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There are three main types of evaluation criteria: natural
criteria, constructed scales, proxy criteria.
Natural Criteria
Natural criteria are those that follow from the nature of the
attribute itself. The most obvious examples are dollars (for
financial or economic impacts), hectares (for habitat),
probability of occurrence (for discrete events) and so on. It is
best to use natural criteria wherever possible. They are the
most are readily understood criteria, as they directly describe
the objective they represent. Unfortunately, natural criteria
are not always practical to use due to the limitations of
modeling ability or because of the complexity of the objective.
For example, we might like to know the number of moose per unit
area, but it might only be possible to estimate with any
certainty the number of hectares of moose habitat. In some cases
natural criteria simply don't exist. There is no natural unit
for example for hunter satisfaction. In this case we might
prefer instead to use a constructed scale.
Multi-attribute evaluation vs. monetization
SDM uses define a multi-attribute approach to evaluating
costs and benefits in which the impacts of alternative policies
are reported in natural units (quantitative or qualitative).
Cost benefit analysis involves a further step of monetizing
those effects using a combination of financial costs and
people's stated "willingness to pay" to avoid adverse
effects. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Cost
benefit analysis tends to simplify the decision framework as all
costs and benefits are reported in commensurate units (dollars);
it relies on value judgments of others external to the decision
process to value effects (usually based on survey data with
varying degrees of relevance to the decision at hand).
Multi-attribute evaluation focuses more on trade-offs among
incommensurate endpoints. As a result, it is usually easier for
decision makers to understand the true nature of the impacts
under consideration. Because a multi-attribute approach does not
involve controversial monetization methods, it involves fewer
and more transparent assumptions. This tends to facilitate more
direct scrutiny of the scientific assumptions used in the
analysis. In contrast to cost-benefit analysis, a
multi-attribute approach relies heavily on the decision making
team or local stakeholders to assess the relative value or
importance of effects. A multi-attribute approach does not
preclude a formal cost benefit analysis. Cost benefit analysis
can be conducted to augment the information from a
multi-attribute evaluation. However, a careful multi-attribute
evaluation is a necessary first step whether impacts will be
subsequently monetized or not.
Constructed Scales
Constructed scales report an impact directly, but using a
scale that is constructed for the decision at hand, rather than
already in wide usage. Well known examples include:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average
- Richter Scale for earthquakes
- Apgar scale for newborns
- Grade Point Average for students
- Michelin Rating Systems for restaurants
Over time these have become so widely used and commonly
interpreted that they function almost like natural criteria.
Constructed scales are a practical solution to handling
difficult or complex indicators. Constructed scales can range in
quality from simple survey-type scales to sophisticated and
highly specific impact descriptors. Below is a common and, in
our context, mediocre type of scale. With this kind
of scale, an expert is asked to select the number that best
represents the expected impact of an alternative.
| Worst |
Impacts on Wild Sheep Habitat |
Best |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
While simple to design and administer, these
kinds of scales of limited value. The main problem is that there
is ambiguity surrounding exactly what is meant by a score of two
relative to a score of five or seven. If an alternative scores
five and another scores seven, how much better is the second
alternative relative to the first? Remember, at some point the
decision maker may have to trade off this difference against
some other criterion, such as dollars. The more precise we can
be in defining the difference between two alternatives, the
better.
Also, the scale does not provide any opportunity
to express the degree of confidence the expert has in the
response he or she is giving. The expert might be in highly
confident in one number, but making a wild guess for another.
The confidence surrounding an expert's judgment in a value could
be a critical factor for a decision maker, if, for example, the
decision maker is risk-averse.
Risk-based scales are often even less helpful.
Here, experts are asked to define the level of risk (low,
medium, high, etc.) to some endpoint (say wild sheep) associated
with a proposed alternative. It is almost meaningless to know
that the risks posed by a given policy alternative to sheep are
considered "medium" as opposed to high or low (See Box
2). All we understand is that in some vague way, an ambiguous
aspect of sheep well-being is different, and somehow better in
one case than another. How much significance should we read into
this difference?
There are various kinds of scales:
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