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While some uncertainties can be addressed through field
studies and other research, some will remain, at least within
the timeframe of the assessment, irreducible. Some of these will
be more important than others and in some cases, can affect the
ability to make informed and accepted decisions. Both the
selection of preferred alternatives and the ability to garner
support for them will increasingly depend on an honest
exploration of uncertainty and a formal commitment to learning
over time.
This means that the post-implementation management regime
will increasingly rely on an adaptive approach that could
include both passive monitoring of performance, and active
experimentation (e.g., a sequence of time-limited experimental
flow releases accompanied by extensive monitoring) to
discriminate among competing hypotheses and reduce uncertainty
more rapidly than would otherwise occur (Walters, 1986). It will
also increasingly call for the establishment of institutions
(e.g., multi-party monitoring committees) that can respond to
new information.
Uncertainties are not limited to scientific or impact-related
elements of the decision. Over time, conditions will change and
new information will emerge, especially given the long life of
dam infrastructure (>50-100 years in some instances). New
information may be related to the facts-basis for decisions
(e.g., about technological, market, environmental social and
hydrological conditions) or to changing values (e.g., changes in
relative priorities across water uses, especially as development
needs change). Changes in technology, markets and hydrology are
generally mainstreamed into management of dams and hydro
facilities. Changes in environmental and social conditions, and
relative values amongst water uses, are less closely attended.
A good process will involve building relationships,
developing analytical tools, and establishing institutional
arrangements (e.g., review processes) and cooperative management
agreements that both reduce uncertainty and respond to new
information over time.
The last step in the decision process then is to identify
mechanisms for on-going monitoring to ensure accountability with
respect to on-ground results, research to improve the
information base for future decisions, and a review mechanism so
that new information can be incorporated into future decisions.
A decision process that is serious about sustainability is one
that will create a legacy of learning and adaptation, leading to
greater capacity – in terms of technical information, human
resources and institutional capacity – to make better decisions
in the future. A key challenge will be to both reduce critical
uncertainties and build in institutional flexibility to respond
to new information without overextending management and
political resources.
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As decisions are implemented, some of the uncertainties
inherent in the analysis will be resolved